Now that Congressman Gutierrez has introduced the comprehensive immigration reform bill in the House, eyes will turn to the Senate as Senators Schumer and Graham craft their bill, which is rumored to be more enforcement oriented than the Gutierrez legislation. I think that if an immigration bill doesn’t move toward passage by Memorial Day that we probably will not have comprehensive immigration reform before the 2010 elections. With unemployment still above 10 percent, and the failure of Congress to pass health care reform with a public option (that a majority of Americans supported), it will be difficult to harness the political will for immigration reform while the economy lingers, and while Congress and a portion of the Senate is up for re-election and will be entrenched in campaigns during the summer and fall.
I have perused through the Gutierrez immigration reform bill (CIR ASAP), and some of my initial observations are as follows:
* The bill repeals the 287(g) program and asserts that enforcement of federal immigration law lies with the federal government. The elimination of this program would get rid of the Sheriff Joe Arpaio problem that we have in Arizona along with other immigration profiling incidents.
* There is an earned legalization program for the undocumented, whereby they will have to jump through a series of hoops, pay a $500 fine and application fees, and comply with background checks to qualify for conditional status. This will clearly help bring people out of the shadows.
* There isn’t a temporary worker program, which is something that business owners and many Republicans would like to see.
* The bill does incorporate detention reform and requires better medical treatment and care for immigrants in the detention system.
* The bill prohibits the separation of families, which is an issue that many currently face with children being separated from their parents.
Seneca has also chimed in with some foreshadowing of what we might expect with CIR in the next year:
In many circles we are dealing with getting ‘law breakers’ an amnesty hence you reach for a weapon (more law enforcement) to show cojones (the first portion of the bill is heavy on enforcement). The whole thing will become sheer posturing under the current political environment. The fact is real likely voters are not automatically sympathetic to allowing all these poor foreigners in with a free ride to citizenship. Sad!
I would bet that the majority of whites, blacks, Jews, Asians, Cubans, Puerto Ricans and even divided Mexicans do not favor granting wholesale amnesty or some other status that jumps the undocumented to the front of the line. Even the TPS (Temporary Protected Status) for hundreds of thousands of primarily Central Americans is going on ten years next year. The question being raised is: does ten years kick in some proviso that enables these TPS holders to apply for automatic permanent residence? Therefore, even a firebrand liberal like Rep. Gutierrez has to appear like a sheriff. And Obama is not going to get out in front of this issue, but to only to say that it is time for reform, while giving a nice speech, and then tossing the issue back to Congress.
Immigration in a tough congressional election cycle where the Democrats will lose in significant numbers, ‘immigration’ as a standard bearer issue is like adopting a ‘crucifix in front of Dracula’: the body politic will recoil. Obama and our Hispanic members of Congress can be expected probably to show scant political bravery on this topic. It begs to be addressed but the political climate, the stars lining up: the economy (joblessness), the war, the gigantic and deepening debt crisis, and lastly the health care debate will take its toll. The only thing that will energize this coming discussion might be if the mad rabid nationalist Right Wing deems it necessary to add a racist element to the debate. And consequently if all Hispanics and Latinos detect the rising sentiment of anti-Latino/Hispanic, then the sleeping giant will be aroused and prepare for battle. It will become most polarizing. The Dems will see meltdown (or turn-tail) within their party, and the GOP will seek not to fly completely out of control or become plainly unhinged. The pro-immigration reform stalwarts will have to craft a thoughtful, thorough, reasonable strategy that does not just offer a political way out (salida) but a real solution.
11 responses so far ↓
1 stephen // Dec 22, 2009 at 11:39 pm
Good thoughts. I do think the GOP has an incentive in baiting the Dems and pro-business Republicans forward on the issue. If they can drag this out to October, it will be a mobilizing issue for the GOP base to pile on in a down year for the Dems.
2 Carl McGinnis // Dec 23, 2009 at 6:17 am
Everyone must be warned before coming to the United States. Even if you have a visa, you are putting yourself at risk of Homeland Security ICE officers. I have a friend that is from Paris France here on an education visa to finish his degree. He has been here since 2005. His visa is valid until March of 2010, His passport is valid until 2014, and his I-20 is current. He is not illegal. In 2008 He fell in love and married a U.S. citizen that just happens to be addicted to Prescription medications, He knew nothing about this. But he was arrested due to her mistakes. He was placed in detention, scheduled for deportation. He has been in detention center in Pompano Beach Florida for 5 months now. All this because of her mistakes. She should be the one in jail not him. Please everyone coming to America. Think twice. This couple has lost all there savings on lawyers, she lost her job, and they are in the process of losing there home. All this was caused because ICE has the wrong person in jail. They make up any story they want and when they are questioned about it you get nowhere. I have written many letters to Janet Napolitano, Senator Bill Nelson, Representative Ginny Brown-Waite and even President Obama. But no one will listen. So please people think twice about coming to America for any reason. Our immigration system is broken ….they all agree, but you put your life at risk when you enter our borders. Even if you follow the rules you may also lose everything as this couple has. No one will listen, no one cares. This man has never even had a traffic violation and is 51 yrs old. He has never worked in America has always been self supporting and took nothing from Americans social services. His American dream has turned into a night mare. Shame on America. I think it is about time someone revised this immigration and ICE practice. What is illegal in this case is the way DHS is treating this guy. John Morton and Janet N. should be ashamed of themselves. This is just wrong. While in there detention center they have abused him, denied him food and proper medical treatment. He is diabetic and they will not give him the proper food or medical attention. I think it is terrible. The phone system is very poor and not working everyday. They plan it that way so they can not contact there lawyers and family. Someone needs to stop ICE, They are totally out of control. I fear He will be next on the long list of persons that have died while in detention. Until you go to one of these detention centers and see with your own eyes, you will not believe what America is doing. I was shocked, on my first visit and after almost 6 months of seeing what happens, how they have to live. I am still in shock. Trust me it is all about money. He is in a private prison owned by a company called GEO based near Miami Fl. They are paid very well by our tax dollars, but the treatment is unbelievable. I just have to close by saying shame on America. I have seen it with my own eyes. I wonder how many congressmen have stock in this company. They are doing quite well. Just watch for yourself they are GEO on the stock market and are doing well in a bad economy. Makes one think a government contract like this is not a bad investment. I think the government is making a mountain out of a mole hill and now wants to sell climbing equipment!
3 Frank // Dec 23, 2009 at 10:00 am
The only think i know is that Obama is not doing what he said about immigration reform.
If we don’t have CIR done next year ,we have to vote against democrats. They are playing with latinos , they are all bla, bla,bla and excuses.
Looks like they don’t have the votes and they are majority now so if they don’t pass CIR now latinos have to wait 3 more years to see again Mr. Obama promising new reform.
Merry Christmas for everybody!!!
4 Reyfeo // Dec 23, 2009 at 6:07 pm
It was Reagan who gave amnesty back in the 80′s…don’t hold your breath with these Dems, they have an agenda that doesn’t involve us…I only wish we’d seen that before we voted these idiots in for office.
5 WhatThe.. // Dec 24, 2009 at 11:22 am
This has to be one of the most worthless piece of legislation created, especially without any forsight. You have to remember, US Rep. Luis Gutierrez is also a piece of work, especially in his way of raising campaign funds. Gutierrez teamed up with a developer and longtime political donor who sold him a plot of land and built him a new home. And when the congressman decided not to move into the home, the developer, Krzysztof Karbowski, was there to buy it back. Gutierrez walked away with nearly $200,000, then Gutierrez personally lobbied Mayor Richard Daley to back a controversial multimillion-dollar development for the campaign contributer/ real estate associate. He did this several times.
When people like this create legislation without concrete foundation you get nothing. Just like President ONADA’s health care bill, you get NADA…
6 Pablo // Dec 25, 2009 at 2:41 pm
While I favor wholesale amnesty, I know it’s politically infeasible. Nevertheless, this interests me mucho:
7 anon // Jan 1, 2010 at 2:02 pm
@Carl McGinnis : If conditions are so bad why doesn’t he just go back to Fr.
8 2 New Studies about Immigration & Economic Impacts // Jan 12, 2010 at 9:45 pm
[...] time for the immigration debate to heat up because of the recession (as we have discussed before here), I do think that over the long term we have more to gain by regularizing undocumented immigrants, [...]
9 Roy B // Jan 17, 2010 at 3:55 pm
It is a long time coming immigration reform, but there are a few things that are left out of the bill. One is now embassies hand out visas and anyone that knows someone who has gone throw it knows that has to change.
The other big thing is Uniting American family’s act wasn’t added to it. For the people that don’t know what that is, it’s so a gay couple in a bi-national relationship can bring there partner into this country. As of right now you cannot sponsor your partner. I have been in a loving relationship for over 8 years with my partner and married to him in Canada for one year. I cannot sponsor him into this country like straight couples can do. The Uniting American families act is in committee right now but they can’t bring it out because the Latino caucus will not approve it or sponsor it till they get what they want!
Tell me how unfair is that there are a little over 35,000 American known citizens waiting and praying for this bill to get passed. There are thousands of Americans that had to choose between living in this country or living with their life partner.
We are talking illegal immigrations or American citizens? All because the Latino caucus said they wouldn’t support the bill till they are made happy.
10 Melanie Nathan // Jan 17, 2010 at 6:21 pm
how do you feel about Schumer including the Uniting American Families Act – for same-sex couples.
11 DREAM Activist Gaby Pacheco Talks to LatinoPoliticsBlog // Mar 10, 2010 at 9:42 pm
[...] have pushed for comprehensive immigration reform, similar to the bill in the Congress that has been introduced by Representative Gutierrez (this does include the DREAM Act). Furthermore, some have suggested [...]
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